Impending drought may stifle agricultural production beyond spring 2023, group predicts

Average rainfall over winter will not be sufficient to deter drought conditions over next year, the National Drought Group’s forecast has shown. At the time of writing, much of England is still suffering from drought, with 11 of the Environment Agency’s 14 areas under drought status and the remaining three experiencing prolonged dry weather.

According to a report published by the Environment Agency (EA), September rainfall across England reached average levels for the first time in six months. However, reservoir levels remain low due to the soil being drier than usual, leaving the underlying drought situation unaffected.

During a meeting chaired by EA chief executive Sir James Bevan, members of the National Drought Group (NDG) discussed the potential implications of a dry autumn and winter for the agriculture, water, and environmental sectors in 2023.

Several water companies warned that drought conditions in England will remain beyond spring next year if the country receives below average rainfall, with reservoirs in parts of the South West, South East, East, Yorkshire and East Midlands more severely affected.

The group also discussed what needs to be done over the next six months to secure water supplies and prepare for dry periods throughout spring and summer next year. Actions will include water companies implementing drought plans, maximising water availability from existing sources, and accelerating infrastructure plans to improve resilience of water supplies.

Meanwhile, the EA will manage abstraction licences ensuring the correct amount of water is taken, make decisions on drought permits for water companies, and operate its water transfer schemes. The agency says it will also work together with farmers, businesses and other abstractors to make sure enough water is available for all while protecting the environment.

EA chief executive and NDG chair Sir James Bevan remarked: “Our lives, livelihoods and nature all depend on one thing – water. Climate change and population growth mean we need to take action now to ensure we have enough over the coming decades to manage everyday supplies, and more intense drought events.”

Sir Bevan said the EA is determined to deliver its plan to mitigate the impacts of drought on the nation. However, he also stressed that success is conditional to all those involved working together – including the government, farmers, businesses, water companies and regulators.

As well as discussing projections for water availability over the coming year, NDG members also reviewed the potential environmental impacts of the current dry weather in 2023, including fish populations, with fish rescues being needed as a result of low river levels.

Long-term water security and resilience a top concern

In response to the NDG’s projections, the EA says it is taking additional steps to enhance the resilience of water supplies to forecasted dry periods and ensure long-term water security. The National Framework for Water Resources, launched by the EA in 2020, sets out the scale of action needed to create an improved water environment.

The steps to be taken to ensure water security and resilient supplies include investment in new water infrastructure, which will also help drive growth for the country. NDG members have devised a plan to speed up the delivery of that infrastructure and by extension water security on the long term.

Water minister Trudy Harrison added: “The record-breaking temperatures, unusually low rainfall and widespread drought the country has experienced this year are a reminder that we need to adapt to ensure our water supplies are resilient and secure in the future.

“The work of the National Drought Group is ensuring that we can manage down the risk of continuing drought conditions, so that the impact is less severe for all of us.”

The NDG concluded that in order to combat the impending drought, all sectors must use water wisely and plan for all scenarios. Group members will meet again later this year to re-evaluate the situation and take further action if necessary.