Farmers encouraged to future-proof their businesses against changing weather patterns

AHDB’s Climate Change Adaptation report assesses the risks and opportunities from climate change that will most affect its levy payers.

It describes how climate change could impact agriculture across multiple temperature increase scenarios, between now and 2100, and suggests changes farmers could make to protect their businesses.

Rachael Madeley-Davies, AHDB head of environment, said: “The UK is experiencing less predictable seasons and more frequent and intense weather events. Agriculture is especially vulnerable to these changes because it is directly dependent on the climate, as well as relying on natural assets like soils interacting with complex biological systems.”

Focus for all

The risk of flooding has been highlighted as a high-priority area. Farmers are being encouraged to prioritise thinking about the impact of increased rainfall and assess whether it will lead to an increased likelihood of flooding in their area.

The Met Office UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) suggests that by mid-century, there will be around a 20% increase in heavy rainfall, with average rainfall around 5% higher than the 1981–2000 average.

Mrs Madeley-Davies added: “Many farmers are already aware of the risks caused by flooding, but it’s important this becomes a focus for all. Farmers need to identify any risk areas to their farm in order to futureproof their business.

“Ensuring that soil remains permeable and minimising compaction is an easy win in terms of soil health and adapting to managing increased rainfall and flooding implications on farmland. This could include practical steps such as aeration, minimal tillage and utilising deep-rooted varieties such as festuloloium, cocksfoot and clovers.

“Farmers should also understand watercourses around their farm, including near key infrastructure, and how they cope during periods of prolonged rainfall. It could be that maintenance is required, or investment in terms of water diversion, water capture and adaption or relocation of farm buildings.”

Impacted by climate change

The Climate Change Adaptation report and associated risk assessments will help inform farmers on where the climate risks are for them and their business, and what tools and resources are available to help them.

The areas identified at highest risk of impact caused by climate change are:

· Assets – extreme rainfall and flooding leading to waterlogging and soil erosion; damage to farm buildings and equipment.

· Productivity – extreme weather events such as heatwaves, drought, high rainfall and flooding impacting livestock and crops.

The risks posed to these are critical now and could have a significant impact on food production, AHDB added.

As well as risks, the report also highlights where there may be opportunities for farmers and growers, such as the chance to grow new crops and lowering of feed and energy costs that come with less reliance on housing livestock if winters are warmer.

Mrs Madeley-Davies explained: “The focus for agriculture to date has been around climate mitigation actions, i.e. how agriculture can reduce its environmental impact. There is currently little data at scale of the implementation of actions that could be used to adapt to climate change on farms in the UK and this report fills that gap.

“Ultimately agriculture needs to begin adapting to, as well as mitigating against, climate change – it’s two sides of the same coin. The good news is a lot of the actions required are current best practice, such as maintaining soil health for productivity and animal health and welfare.”

The report forms part of the government’s National Adaptation Reporting Power programme fourth round (ARP4). The programme assesses the UK’s planning and resilience to climate change and feeds into the next Climate Change Risk Assessment for the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

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