England suffers second worst harvest on record 

Following record levels of rainfall last winter, farmers in England have suffered the second worst harvest since 1983.

This is according to analysis by a think tank following the release of new Defra figures.

Yields were down for nearly all the main cereal crops and OSR, but oats saw an 8.5% increase.

New Defra figures show: 

• Yield was reduced for all the main cereal crops and OSR, apart from oats which saw an 8.5% increase
• The English wheat harvest is estimated to be 10m tonnes this year, down 22% on 2023 due to yield and area declines
• The English barley harvest is predicted to be 4.9 million tonnes, an increase of 2.7% on 2023. This comprises a 26% decrease in winter barley production offset by a 41% increase in spring barley
• Oat production increased by 20% to 773,000 tonnes in 2024, due to an 11% increase in area and an 8.5% increase in yield
• Oilseed rape production is estimated to have fallen by 33% to 687,000 tonnes. This was driven by a 29% decrease in area and a 7.9% decrease in yield
• Wheat straw production is estimated to fall by 17% to 2.4m tonnes, whereas barley straw production is estimated to increase by 12% to 1.7 million tonnes.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) has estimated that the shortfall in production this year could see farmers lose £600m in revenue on wheat, winter barley, spring barley, oats and oilseed rape alone.

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Scottish harvest “toughest in 30 years” 

Meanwhile NFU Scotland’s annual harvest survey revealed a mixed picture from around the country. 

Some have described this year’s growing season and harvest as the toughest in 30 years, with a wet autumn and winter, followed by a late spring. 

Harvesting conditions have also been tricky, with many being grateful for the good weather window in mid-to-late September. 

The huge variability in yields is demonstrating by some wheats yielding 6t/ha in certain areas whilst others yielded as much as 11t/ha. 

Improved weather this autumn has allowed many, who had managed to harvest, to also get their winter crops in the ground in good conditions – and early establishment has been good.

NFU Scotland’s combinable crops chair, Jack Stevenson, who farms in Banffshire, said a tough year combined with the recent drop in price in the marketplace means we need to build confidence in the sector.

“With record rainfall in some areas since October 2023, winter crops suffered almost from the moment they were planted,” he commented.  

“Spring crops have done better even though they were late in the ground. 

“We had decent amounts of sunshine and growth in June and July, and some farmers have had bumper crops of spring barley.”

Early reports of grain analysis also suggests wide variation in quality and some needed a lot of drying, with some having moistures as high as 24%.

“Reports are that there has been quite a lot of barley has met the specification for malting,” Mr Stevenson concluded.

Spring crops fared better than winter crops

AHDB’s final harvest report for the 2024/25 season notes that dry weather towards the beginning of harvest gave way to frustrating delays towards the end:

Wheat: Weather conditions were favourable during much of the 2024 wheat harvest, and 88% was cut by 28th August, well ahead of the five-year average of 60%.

But progress slowed down notably in September due to rain and humid conditions. 

Yields are estimated to be down 7% on average across the UK, at 7.5t/ha. 

While some growers have managed to produce high yields given the circumstances, many have seen significant drops.

Barley: Harvest (both winter and spring) is now complete and quality has been good, with good germination scores reported, but low nitrogen levels. 

Moisture content of spring barley samples increased on average as the harvest progressed into Scotland. 

However, moisture adjusted yields were only reported to be down 3% on the five-year average level across the UK. 

Oats: There was a noticeable improvement in performance towards the end of harvest, reflecting the transition from winter oats to spring oats.

The winter crop was, generally, established in poor conditions, but while many spring oats were planted much later than usual, they had a favourable start.

Oat yields (winter and spring crops combined) in the UK were just 2% below the five-year average.

Oilseed rape: Quality has been good this season, with oil content high. Yields have been variable from region to region and are down 8% on average, at 2.97t/ha.

Helen Plant, AHDB senior analyst (Cereals & Oilseeds), said:

“Despite being planted later than usual, spring crops generally fared much better than winter crops, which had a very tough start with the second wettest August through February since 1837, when records began.

“It is evident just how variable yields are from region-to-region, farm-to-farm, and field-to-field.

“This is not surprising given the unusual weather we have experienced, but the larger drop in yields for some businesses will pose significant cash flow challenges.”

She concluded: “With harvest complete attention is now turning to establishing the 2025 crop. Many will be eager to get winter cereals in the ground considering last year’s extremely wet autumn and winter conditions.”

Fears for harvest 2025

For many, the drilling season this year has got off to an even worse start than 2023 following high levels of rain across much of southern, central and eastern England.

Colin Chappell, an arable farmer in Lincolnshire said: “We are now on a knife edge. Last week we had almost two inches of rain within 36 hours here and we’re not the worst off. 

“Some farms in southern England have lost their crops for the second year in a row. Many will now be relying on spring wheat once again this year, which only produces about half as much as winter wheat.”

He added: “We’re getting into a situation where autumn planting is becoming unviable due to flooding and spring planting is risky because of drought. 

“It is causing a lot of nervousness and uncertainty. Farmers are going to need support to see them through this and ensure they are resilient in the future. 

“This is certainly not the time to cut the agriculture budget, this is the time to redouble our efforts and invest in policies that boost farming’s resilience, both environmentally and financially.”

October Budget must invest in farming 

Analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) found that climate change made storm rainfall 20% heavier, and the volume of rainfall between October 2023 and March 2024 four times more likely.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at ECIU said climate change is to blame for the shocking harvest figures.

“It is clear that climate change is the biggest threat to UK food security.

“And these impacts are only going to get worse until we reduce our greenhouse gas emissions to net zero, in order to stop the warming that is driving these extremes.”

He added that the new government has the opportunity to invest in more sustainable farming in the Autumn Budget. 

“[…] That would build our food security resilience to these extremes.

“The alternative is to allow the effects of these climate impacts to worsen in the years ahead,” he added.

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