Farmers among the hardest hit by UK-EU trade deal, report finds 

New analysis has revealed that the “stifling effects” of the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement have intensified over time.

As well as a 27% drop in UK exports and a 32% reduction in imports to and from the EU between 2021 and 2023, the variety of goods exported has also fallen by 33%. 

The agricultural, textiles, clothing and materials sectors have been most affected, according to the report, Unbound: UK Trade Post Brexit.

The analysis was carried out by researchers at the Centre for Business Prosperity at Aston University.

Researchers analysed monthly import and export between the UK and the EU, from January 2017 to December 2023 and separated into pre- and post-January 2021 when the agreement came into force.  

50% drop in some meat exports

Since the UK-EU TCA came into force, the UK government has negotiated several trade agreements, but the EU remains the UK’s largest trade partner. 

Exports for most sectors have decreased since January 2021, although the impact is varied. 

Agrifood, textile and clothing and material-based manufacturing have been among the hardest hit, with substantial declines in both export value and the variety of products exported. 

The British Meat Processors Association reported a 50% drop in exports of some meat products to the EU in the first quarter of 2021 due to increased border checks and delays

On the import side, most sectors have shrunk in both value and variety, particularly agrifood products, optical, textile and material-based manufacturing. 

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Substantial barriers

Lead author, Professor Jun Du of Aston University said: 

“The Trade and Cooperation Agreement introduced substantial barriers and there are ongoing and marked declines in the value and variety of UK exports and imports. 

“Without urgent policy interventions, the UK’s economic position and place in the global market will continue to weaken.”

Non-tariff measures are a particular issue, he continued.

“Addressing these issues through targeted improvements to the TCA is crucial to ensuring that UK businesses remain competitive in the European market. 

“A structured, multi-faceted approach is necessary.”

Urgent need for reconfiguration

Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, the report’s co-author added: 

“Our findings indicate a decoupling of the UK from key EU final goods markets, accompanied by a shift in UK supply chains toward geographically closer EU trading partners for exports and smaller countries for imports. 

“This shift raises concerns and underscores the urgent need for a strategic reconfiguration of UK supply chains to maintain competitiveness.” 

The researchers make recommendations, outlining how sector-specific negotiations, streamlining customs procedures with digital technologies and reducing regulatory divergence could mitigate some of the impacts. 

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