Survey predicts reduced wheat area with barley and OSR on the rise
28th July 2023
Results from the latest Planting and Variety Survey indicate that more barley and oilseed rape (OSR) are being sown in the UK at the expense of wheat, the area of which is estimated to decrease by 3% for harvest 2023.
The survey, which provides planted area estimates for the UK with a GB regional breakdown, estimates that a total of 1,746 Kha of wheat has been sown for harvest 2023. This represents a slight decrease year-on-year due to more barley and OSR being drilled.
The total UK barley area is estimated to increase by 5% on the year, with an uptick in both winter and spring area. There is also an increase in the UK OSR area, which is estimated to increase 11% year-on-year, as high prices in Spring 2022 offered growers the incentive to plant additional OSR.
Meanwhile, there seems to be a movement away from alternative break crops such as oats, as the UK oat area is set to decrease by 7% year-on-year.
Anthony Speight, AHDB senior analyst, said gross margins for 2023 are likely to be squeezed compared to 2022 due to the high input costs of the current season as a result of inflation and steep energy and fertiliser prices.
“Since winter crops have been sown, global grain markets have been on a downward drift as markets have adjusted, navigated and digested the war and geo-politics in the Black Sea,“ he pointed out.
“It’s a hard time for growers as cereal and oilseed prices are now lower than what they were when planting intentions were decided last year, and those peak marketing opportunities may have passed for 2023 harvest.
As harvest 2023 starts, growers will have a clearer idea on their breakeven point,“ he added. “What I will say is take marketing opportunities and ride the short-term volatile highs when opportunities arise to market your crops.”
Key findings of the survey include:
- In 2023 the total UK wheat area is estimated at 1,746 Kha, 3% down from 2022.
- The total UK barley area for harvest 2023 is estimated at 1,154Kha, up 5% on the year. The GB spring barley area is estimated at 702 Kha, up 7% year-on-year, while the GB winter barley area is estimated to be 2% higher at 434 Kha.
- The GB oat area is estimated at 161 Kha, this is 7% down year-on-year.
- The GB oilseed rape (OSR) area is estimated at 402 Kha, this is 11% higher than 2022 levels.
- For harvest 2023 KWS Extase is the most popular wheat variety with 17% of the total GB wheat area. For barley, Laureate is the most popular variety, accounting for 32% of the total GB barley area.
The full AHDB Planting and Variety Survey results are available to view and download on the AHDB Survey Results page.
