Analysis reveals potential benefits of CPTPP accession for UK red meat and dairy

The work highlights population growth, economic development and the expansion of middle-class consumers as the main drivers for long-term opportunities for red meat and dairy products resulting from the UK joining the CPTPP. Compiled in collaboration with Harper Adams University, it also examines the strategic implications of the move for UK agriculture.

While initial benefits are limited, the analysis points to more far-reaching opportunities in the Asian and South American markets, driven by increased demand for red meat and dairy products.

Further benefits to producers may also arise with other countries such as China, Taiwan, Ecuador, Costa Rica and Uruguay joining the CPTPP with the offering of preferential terms and either lowering or removing tariffs over time to other members.

Jess Corsair, AHDB Trade and Policy senior analyst, said: “The UK’s accession to the CPTPP is very much about playing the long game in terms of the potential benefits it will bring to UK exporters of red meat and dairy products.

“The expansion of the middle class in Asian and South American markets is likely to be a driver for these longer-term benefits for UK exports, reiterating the forecasts in our Prospects for UK agri-food exports analysis launched in January.

“Consequently, while we don’t anticipate any dramatic changes to trade overnight, the forecast increase in demand for pork and beef by 2031 in Japan, Vietnam, Mexico and Canada is encouraging,” he noted.

“Similarly, opportunities for dairy with significant growth in Malaysia and Japan for butter and cheese, and for skimmed milk powder in Mexico will be areas that the UK can capitalise on.”

AHDB’s trade modelling analysis on CPTPP is available to view on the AHDB website here.